Monday, March 21, 2016

Where do the political candidates stand as compared to Russian Lenin, German Nazi, and Italian Fascism?

People often to refer to Nazism and Italian Fascism as one in the same, even though they both can be considered fascism they are completely different. Italians version of fascism is everything is for the state and Germans version of fascism is everything is for the Aryan race. One was race driven and the other was state driven, which is why they should be referred to as different political systems. They two countries also had completely different motives. Italy was motivated by uniting the Italian people no matter the race for a stronger Italy. Germany was motivated by revenge in taking back the lands and persecuting those who persecuted them. Another political party was the beginning of communism in Russia sought after by a revolution by Vladimir Lenin. Below is a comparison of how the candidates stack up to the former parties.

Nazi Party (National Socialist Workers Party)

  • Anti Big Business - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes Sanders
  • Anti Bourgeoisie - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes Sanders
  • Anti Capitalist - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, some say yes on Sanders
  • Anti Semitistic - Not Cruz, Clinton, Sanders, some say yes on Trump
  • Anti Marx - Yes Trump, Cruz, Clinton, No Sanders
  • Nationalism - Yes Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Irredentism - No Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Expansionism - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Elimination of Social Classes - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Yes Sanders
  • Social Welfare - Not Trump, Cruz, Yes Clinton, Sanders
  • Totalitarianism- Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Gun Control - Not Trump, Cruz. Yes Clinton, Sanders

None of the candidates is close to being a Nazi, the closest is actually Bernie Sanders

Italian Fascism 

  • Nationalism - Yes Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Corporatist Economy - No Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes Sanders
  • Anti Socialism - Yes Trump, Cruz, Clinton. No Sanders
  • Anti Conservatism - No Trump, Cruz. Yes Clinton, Sanders
  • Irredentism - No Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Expansionism - No Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Anti Marx - Yes Trump, Cruz, Clinton. No Sanders
  • Semitic Tolerate - Yes Cruz, Clinton, Sanders. some say no on Trump
  • Moral Hygiene - Yes Cruz, No Trump, Clinton, Sanders
  • Totalitarianism - No Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Tradition - No Trump, Clinton, Sanders. Yes Cruz
  • Protectionism - Yes Trump, Cruz. No Clinton, Sanders
  • Anti Freedom of Religion - Yes Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders 

None of the candidates is close to being an Italian Fascist, the closest is actually Bernie Sanders

Russian Leninism

  • Anti Big Business - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes Sanders
  • Anti Bourgeoisie - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes Sanders
  • Anti Capitalist - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, some say yes on Sanders
  • Anti Imperialism - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Pro Marx - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes on Sanders
  • Democratic Centralism - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • National Self Determination - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders
  • Socialist Culture - Not Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes Sanders
  • Dictatorship of the Proletariat - No Cruz, Clinton. Yes Trump, Sanders
  • Revolution - No Trump, Cruz, Clinton. Yes Sanders
Only one of the candidates is close to being a Russian Lenninist and it is Bernie Sanders

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Innumeracy of the Media

5 out of 4 people have a problem with statistics.

I read a news article that stated Harmony Kristin Szarek, a graduate student at Ohio State University, interviewed a majority of prominent grizzly bear scientists and found that 60 percent of experts “believe delisting would be an incorrect decision, or at the very least a violation of the precautionary principle.”  

After calling bullshit on the 60%, I clicked the link.
It sent me to a national geographic website, which after reading I found the actual link to the article. (Side Note: There are many numbers in the NatGeo article that are pretty well made up, but to keep this short I won't go into it)

The Thesis paper link is titled Subjectivity in Expert Decision Making: Risk Assessment, Acceptability, and Cognitive Heuristics Affecting Endangered Species Act Listing Judgments for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Grizzly Bear

It is a really great read and I recommend it. 
Here is a breakdown of the 60% number in case you're illiterate.
1430 experts were identified, 1216 emails were sent, 590 opened the email, 170 opted out of the survey, 234 submitted a survey, and 172 submissions were incomplete and the data was computed using Multiple Imputation via Chained Equations (MICE).

Of the grizzly bear experts:

  • 12% actually are working or have worked with the Yellowstone Grizzly bears. 28 people
  • 35.9% are working with grizzly bears, but not the Yellowstone Grizzly bears - though do have some (not defined) knowledge of Yellowstone Grizzly bears 84 people
  • 34.1 are working with grizzly bears, but not the Yellowstone Grizzly bears - though do have no knowledge of Yellowstone Grizzly bears. 80 people
  • 13% have no grizzly/brown bear research or management experience, but have other wildlife research or management experience 30 people
  • 5.7% No knowledge and were dropped from the survey 13 people
Overall 60% supported listing of Grizzlies to the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and yet ~50% have no idea of the grizzly bear population in Yellowstone. Red Flag

Another issue is the question on the survey : Endangered, Threatened, Unlisted, Unsure

I color coded them to show how each response would be measured as a solution. ESA = Endangered or Threatened, Unlisted is unlisted, and Unsure is thrown out. 
All parties of experts listed threatened as a majority. 2 responses are used to compare against one. It is kind of setting up the survey to be biased towards the listing. 

Let me just recap. 28 people are the only ones that really have a voice in a fight. 110 people in the survey should not even be considered. 84 people should be taken with a grain of salt, because they are not experts in the area. The survey is random, because of the emails being sent to all. An issue could potentially be who would choose to respond and why? We do not know this. Who would be more likely to respond - someone for or against the listing?

If you heard 60% of all experts, would you jump on ship and just accept that it is right?

The media did, but it is their job to attempt to find the most dramatic figures and publish them promptly. 

If I told you that 15 or 16 of the 28 grizzly experts surveyed in the Yellowstone ecosystem said they supported listing would you think any different of the study?

People and numbers do not get along, but people strive to use numbers to defend a certain position and often have no idea what numbers they are using. 

If you want to read a good book on the subject of Statistics, read More Damned Lies and Statistics by Joel Best.

Stop innumeracy and think critically before the media brainwashes you into repeating statistics that are no more than a bed of lies. 

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Utah Limited Entry Elk Draw Perceptions and Realities

Fictional Story

I have seventeen points for an elk hunt. I should draw this year in the Monroe early hunt.
What the hell? I didn’t draw this system is stupid and I will never draw a Tag.

Phone rings….
“Hey Steve, Guess what? I just drew an elk tag in the Monroe early hunt. Did you draw?” Says Jimmy
“No….wait how did you draw ahead of me with only 3 points.” Exclaims Steve
“I don’t know, I just got lucky I guess” remarked Jimmy
Hang Up

Phone rings….
“Hey Steve, did you draw?” says Stanley
“No I didn’t I thought my 14 points would give me a for sure tag, but I was wrong. Did you draw?” replied Steve
“Yeah, I picked up a Paunsaugunt Late tag” exclaimed Stanley
“Really, this is your third draw on an elk tag in the last 10 years. You are the luckiest SOB on the planet. Congrats.”
Hang up

The Steve is a prime example of some of the misconceptions of the Utah big game draw. Now, before I address the misconceptions I will define the Utah Drawing Process.
Utah is a 50/50 preference point state, which means every year that you don’t draw you will get a point towards that species. Preference points can also be bought in the application process for the price of the application. 50/50 means that 50% of the permits go to the top preference point applicants and 50% go into a random drawing of all other applicants.

In the first example the Monroe early hunt has 10 permits, 5 of which will go to the top point holders. In 2013 the bar for the Monroe Unit was set at 20 preference points. All five permits preference point permits went to people that has obtained 20 or more points. The other 5 permits were then sent to a random draw which included Steve and his 17 points. The random draw had 1556 applicants and Steve has the same chance to draw as every one of them. Jimmy won a permit with a chance of 0.32%. Steve’s 17 points were null in this process even though he felt otherwise

In the second example Stanley did not have the points to obtain a permit through the preference point allotment. Stanley knew that with his 1 point that his chances to draw would be better if he found a unit with better drawing odds. The hunt he selected has 37 applicants for 9 permits. Stanley’s chance to draw was at 23.08%. Stanley will complete 3 elk hunts using the process by the time that Steve will complete one. Steve might get a better elk, but Stanley had a chance at 3 different elk. Steve could have almost drawn this unit twice using the preference points, the bar was set at 9. This year there were only 7 limited draw elk hunts that Steve could have put in for and not drawn. Steve didn’t know the numbers.

Another misconception that wasn’t mentioned in the examples is if an area gives out a lot of permits, it increases your odds to draw. This is all dependent on the number of applicants. The two areas in Utah that give out the most permits are the Central Mountains Manti Early (134 permits) and the Wasatch Mountains (174 permits). The number of applicants were 2875 (Manti) and 3951 (Wasatch). Your odds of drawing in these two units is 2.44% (Manti) and 2.3% (Wasatch). There are 8 other units in the state that has less than 100 applicants apply. One of which was Cache Meadowville Late which had 25 people apply for 7 tags, which is a 41.18% chance of drawing. Conversely, there are units such as the La Sal Doloras Triangle that 80 people apply for 3 tags which is a 3.9% chance of drawing.

Many units with the harder draws have bigger elk.

Many units with close proximity to SLC/Provo have harder draws.

Many units that families have hunted over generations have harder draws.

There is nothing wrong with waiting 23 years for the elk hunt of a lifetime, but you shouldn’t complain about the wait.

There are units you can draw a lot more if you are just looking for a limited entry hunt.

You have to do your research and apply for the hunts that you can draw or wait your turn for the elk hunts that you can’t draw at the moment.

It’s elk hunting either way.

Monday, December 1, 2014

The L Word

A great man has written several blogs about the coveted 'L word.' He will remain nameless, because I'm sure he would love you reading his blogs (which are quite great), but I'm sure he doesn't want to be tied to this.

This 'L Word' is LOVE. L.O.V.E.

Well, what is this thing called love?

The English word "love" can refer to a variety of different feelings, states, and attitudes that ranges from interpersonal affection (Wikipedia)

So, it can basically mean anything. For Example:

I love my family. (Non Sexual Companionship)

I love lamp. (Objective)

I love my wife. (Sexual Companionship)

I love my friends. (Social Companionship)

I love God. (Divine)

I love Competition (Personal Fulfilment)

I will now talk about the Sexual Companionship that comes from the biological courtship that is dating.

To start out with I will explain a little bit about myself, just to give a basis on where I am coming from on this discussion. To quote the Great Dexter Morgan who was just brutely butchered by the writers of his show.

"I don't know what made me the way I am, but whatever it was left a...hollow place inside. People fake a lot of human interactions but I feel like I've faked them all and I fake them very well. And that's my burden, I guess."

Now substitute emotions for interactions and you have my personality. Very even keel. I don't get very excited and I don't get very miserable. This attitude gets me into trouble sometimes, because I end up offending people with some of the things that come out of my mouth. I normally don't think that I will have to apply that sentence with the right context, in the right setting, and with the politically correct jargon.

The idea of dating is really weird to me. Compare it to willingly volunteering to walk through a football field full of mouse traps with a blindfold on. It is just Bat Shit Crazy.I go through stages where I put my Jay Cutler mask on and just DDDDDONNNN'TTT CCCCAAAARRREEEE. I don't date anyone, unless the issue is pushed with me. I also go through stages wear I try half-assiduously to find a biological companion.

I go out into the war with my picnic basket like the battle of Fort Sumter.

The Thrill of Elk Hunting

4:00 AM. 

It’s dark outside. 

You strap on the headlamp. 

You put your thermo underwear on one leg at a time. 

You start to put the rest of your clothes on. 

Your only thought is ‘Today could be the day.’ 

You start the truck to get it warm and throw a little food down. 

You drive to the spot where you know you can have a potential of running into the animals. 

You start the climb onto the top of the mountain. 

It’s rugged and brutal and everything you could hope it could be. 

You get to the top and the day is starting to break. 

You start to scan the horizon looking for any animal that could resemble an elk.

Now is the time you make the decision.

Will I go anywhere I need to go or will I go where it is convenient?

This is elk hunting.

It is hiking the hills, chasing the animals, and hoping for an opportunity to take a shot.

The odds are stacked against you. It is remarkably easy for a 1,200 lb bull elk with antlers the size of your leg to disappear at a moment’s notice.

Your challenge is to get as close to it as you can in order to take the shot.

It’s a big challenge.

Good Luck Hunting

Female Superheroes aka Heroines

Female Superhero/hero Movies. Are just, really, bad. WNBA bad. Not saying that the WNBA should be eliminated, because there always will be people that enjoy fundamental basketball. I would rather see the game played on the highest level and not on the JV level.

Men are the grizzly bears and wolves of the hero world. They use power, strength, and cunningness to take down their foes.

Women are the mountain lions and bobcats of the hero world. The use elusiveness, calculated risks, and stealth to take down their foes.

The problem is when they try to make the heroine like a man. It just doesn’t work. A fragile women cannot take down a chiseled douche bag in a hand to hand fight. Just can’t believe it. It really doesn’t matter about the aerobics or gymnastics or physical skill of the women. The female body cannot physically take punishment as well as the male body.

I get that these movies are trying to empower women and motivate them to do whatever a man can do, but instead of trying to make a mountain lion into a grizzly bear. Let the mountain lion be a mountain lion.

The Blackjack Table: A Guide on How to Not Lose Your Money in a Losing Game

The game of Blackjack or 21. It is a simple game and it is too bad people do not understand how to play it. I will submit to you a stratagem to help you keep some of your hard earned cash. Blackjack is a casino game and the odds are not in your favor. Please gamble at your own risk.

Rule #1: Play by the book

Playing by the book gives you a 49% chance of winning and it is statistically proven. Casino's would not allow you to play a game with winning odds.

Always assume the dealer has a ten (King, Queen, Jack, Ten) as the face down card.

If the dealer has a 7 or higher showing, hit until a 17 is reached, don't worry about busting.

Splitting/Doubling is not recommenced in this stratagem, which will be explained later.

If you do split, only split Aces and Eights.

If you do double down, keep in mind the dealer has a ten underneath. In other words, don't double a nine against a ten.

Rule #2 Don't play with people that don't follow Rule #1

If you are playing with someone that is splitting tens or hitting a 14 when the dealer is showing a six, it is best to move on or wait until he loses all of his money.

Playing against the book will decrease your odds drastically and playing with someone playing against the book will decrease your odds drastically.

Rule #3 Double your bet every time you lose and place the table minimum every time you win

The reason? You will win your money back, plus the table minimum when you win.

At 42% probability of winning or a 58% probability of losing or tying. The probability of you losing 5 hands in a row is 6.5%. 92.5% chance of not losing 5 hands in a row. The probability of you losing 10 hands in a row is 0.4%. 99.5% chance of not losing 10 hands in a row.

There is a chance of your losing it all, but ~93 cases out of 100 cases is pretty good odds and 995 cases out of a 1000 cases is pretty much certain.

Rule #4 Play small tables $2, $3,or $5.

Unless you are walking around with a boatload of cash, it is advised to play the small tables.

The reason? 2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024 vs 25,50,100,200,400,800,1,600,3,200,6,400,12,800

If you are on the ~97% percent plan, it is $62 vs $775.
If you are on the 99.9% percent plan it is $2,046 vs $25,575.

Rule #5 Do not use special features

Royal Match - ~25% probability of winning

Insurance- Pay 1/2 your bet to win your bet back


Splitting - You can split, but be advised if you lose you should double what your split total bet was.

Double Down - You can double down, but be advised if you lose you double what your total bet was.